Talk of a possible slump in the UK property market is being
shrugged off by many homeowners and potential purchasers, a
large number of whom believe prices could increase by a further
10 or even 15 per cent in the coming 12 months.
This is the main finding of what is believed to be the country's
largest ever independent Internet survey of people's views of
current UK property prices and the state of the housing market.
The survey follows a summer which has seen house prices rising
at levels unseen since just before the housing market collapse
of the late 1980s when falling prices plunged thousands of householders
into negative equity.
Carried out by property portal website Homes-On-Line during
the last two weeks of August, the e-mail multiple-choice survey
attracted responses from more than 8,600 people who subscribe
to Homes-On-Line's monthly electronic property newsletter. Nearly
half of those who took part said they were currently looking
to buy or sell a property, whilst the survey also included responses
from nearly 400 estate agents.
The
survey found that 47 per cent of those who responded - 3,865
people - believed that house prices would continue to rise over
the coming 12 months. Thirty four per cent said they thought
prices will increase by up to 10 per cent, whilst nearly 10
per cent of those who took part said the increase would be between
10 and 15 per cent. Despite the recent sharp increases in prices
over the summer, a total of 281 people - or nearly four per
cent of respondents - thought the increase would be more than
this.
However,
although just over a quarter said they were unsure what would
happen and nearly 11 per cent said they expected no change in
house prices, more than 14 per cent of respondents believed
house prices will fall over the coming year. The majority expect
price falls of up to 10 per cent, although three per cent of
respondents expect the fall to be between 10 and 20 per cent
and a further two per cent expect prices to drop more than 20
per cent.
The 389 estate agents who took part in the survey were more
definite in their views of what will happen over the coming
12 months. More than 63 per cent of the agents said they believed
prices would continue to rise over the coming year, the majority
expecting increases of up to 10 per cent. However, nearly 10
per cent of agents expect prices to rise by between 10 and 15
per cent whilst three per cent forecast price rises of up to
20 per cent.
The number of agents expecting price falls was also slightly
higher than amongst homeowners and house buyers with nearly
20 per cent of agents expecting the market to fail over the
coming year. Of these, more than 11 per cent expect to see prices
fall back by up to 10 per cent, although eight per cent of agents
anticipate the fall to be between 10 and 20 per cent. Just two
per cent of agents expect prices to come back more than 20 per
cent.
Another
finding of the survey was that 92 per cent of estate agents
said they were opposed to the Chancellor of the Exchequer's
proposals to extend Stamp Duty to the purchase of houses compared
with just over 68 per cent of homeowners and house buyers who
are against the idea. A further 25 per cent of homeowners and
buyers said they did not know whilst just under five per cent
said they supported the Chancellor's suggestion. Homes-On-Line
Managing Director Guy Baker said: "The fact that more than five
per cent of the 160,000 people who subscribe to our monthly
newsletter took the trouble to respond to our survey shows that
interest in the property market is still keen. It also shows
that many people believe the housing market is stronger than
many of the doom and gloom pundits would have us believe with
the perception of many homeowners and buyers as well as estate
agents confident that house values will continue to rise over
the coming year - although at lower levels than we have seen
in recent months."
·
Launched in 1996, Homes-On-Line is the only privately owned
property portal website of any size in the UK. In addition to
providing information on all aspects of buying, selling and
owning a property, the site also has more than 165,000 subscribers
to its regular monthly electronic newsletter which is currently
attracting about 8,000 new readers every month.
Homes-On-Line
UK Housing Market Survey - August 2002 Results of total sample
of 8,601 responses
Are
you currently looking to buy or sell a property ?
|
Yes
|
4010
|
47%
|
|
No
|
2358
|
27%
|
|
Don't know
|
2233
|
26%
|
Do
you think house prices will continue to increase over the next
12 months?
|
|
General
|
Estate Agents
|
|
Prices decrease more than 20%
|
171
|
2.08%
|
8
|
2.06%
|
|
Prices decrease 15-20%
|
114
|
1.39%
|
9
|
2.31%
|
|
Prices decrease 10-15%
|
193
|
1.95%
|
15
|
3.86%
|
|
Prices decrease by up to 10%
|
701
|
8.54%
|
45
|
11.57%
|
|
Prices unchanged
|
897
|
10.92%
|
59
|
15.17%
|
|
Prices increase by up to 10%
|
2811
|
34.23%
|
192
|
49.36%
|
|
Prices increase by 10-15%
|
773
|
9.41%
|
37
|
9.51%
|
|
Prices increase by 15-20%
|
186
|
2.26%
|
12
|
3.08%
|
|
Prices increase by more than 20%
|
95
|
1.57%
|
6
|
1.54%
|
| Don't know |
2271 |
27.65% |
6 |
1.54% |
Do
you agree with the Chancellor of the Exchequer's suggestion
that Stamp Duty should be applied to house sales as well as
to purchases?
|
|
General
|
Estate Agents
|
|
Yes
|
393
|
4.79%
|
30
|
7.71%
|
|
No
|
5608
|
68.29%
|
358
|
92.03%
|
|
Don't know
|
2211
|
26.92%
|
1
|
0.26%
|
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